Lithium: The ‘white gold’ dilemma: How much lithium is left and when will the world’s reserves run out?

Lithium: The ‘white gold’ dilemma: How much lithium is left and when will the world’s reserves run out?

As for lithium , its role as «white gold» ⚪️ is critical to the energy transition, especially for electric vehicle batteries.

Main current uses of Lithium:

• Batteries: This is the most important use and drives most of the demand, especially in lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles, mobile phones, laptops, and other electronic devices.
• Ceramics and glass: Used to make heat-resistant ceramic glass, such as that used in kitchen countertops.
• Lubricants: Lithium hydroxide is used as a thickening agent in lubricating greases for the automotive industry and other applications.
• Medicine: Lithium carbonate is prescribed to treat bipolar disorders.
• Aerospace and air control: Used in air purification and humidity control systems.

World Lithium Reserves and Resources

According to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) estimates, known global lithium reserves will reach 30 million metric tons by 2024. In contrast, global undiscovered lithium resources , which include deposits not yet evaluated, are estimated to be considerably larger. Identified lithium resources, a broader measure that includes known reserves and additional unexploited resources, are estimated to be close to 122 million metric tons .

The Race for Lithium: The Countries That Dominate Reserves and the Battle for the Global Energy Future

Note: Reserve figures vary significantly between sources and years, as exploration and the economic viability of deposits are constantly changing.

Production, Exports and Income

Lithium production in 2024 was estimated at approximately 240,000 tons worldwide, with significant growth in recent years. Australia is the leading producer of lithium, extracting it primarily from hard rock (spodumene), while Chile and Argentina focus on brine extraction.

 

Note: Lithium production, exports, and revenues can vary significantly depending on market price and annual production volumes. Figures are based on 2023 and 2024 data.

The Lithium Countdown: Does the key mineral for the electric future have an expiration date?

Estimated Reserve Depletion

Estimating when lithium reserves will be depleted is complex and highly uncertain. The depletion date depends on factors such as global demand , which continues to rise, extraction technologies (which can make deposits currently unprofitable), and new discoveries .

Below is a hypothetical estimate based on known reserves and annual production in 2024 for each country, ignoring increased demand or new discoveries. This is a projection and is for illustrative purposes only. ⚠️

Lithium, a finite reserve: The current state of global stocks and projections of their depletion

Several countries that are not on the list of major producers, but that have deposits with considerable potential for industrial exploitation and lithium export.

Its development will depend on investment, extraction technology and government policies.

Here is a list of some of these countries, with details about their deposits:

• Mexico: A large lithium deposit has been identified in the state of Sonora. The main challenge is that lithium is found in clay (hectorite) deposits, whose extraction and processing are technologically more complex and expensive than those from brines or hard rock. However, it is considered to have significant long-term potential.
• Spain: Recently, important discoveries of lithium and rubidium deposits have been reported in Salamanca and Cáceres. These discoveries could make Spain a key player in the European mining industry, reducing its dependence on imports. The development of these projects, however, must overcome challenges of economic viability and environmental impact.
• Peru: This Andean country has identified a lithium and uranium deposit in the Puno region. Although the project has faced challenges, the deposit is considered one of the largest of its kind in the world, with considerable potential for the future.
• Canada: Unlike brine deposits, Canada has significant hard rock (pegmatite) lithium reserves. Several mining projects in the country are under development, and Canada is seeking to position itself as a key supplier to the North American battery supply chain.
• Brazil: Like Canada, Brazil has hard-rock lithium deposits. Already a small-scale lithium producer, the country is working to expand its production capacity to meet global demand.
• Portugal: It is the main producer of lithium in Europe, although its output is primarily used in the ceramics industry. With the growing demand for lithium for batteries, the country is exploring the possibility of expanding its mining projects for the production of battery-grade lithium.

These countries demonstrate that the «lithium rush» extends beyond the traditional «Lithium Triangle» (Bolivia, Argentina, Chile) and that diversification of supply sources is a global trend.

 

These figures are estimates. In reality, each country’s production is not constant, and lithium demand continues to grow exponentially. This could result in a different curve in each country for various reasons, with the averages varying greatly due to high demand and competition for this mineral.

Furthermore, lithium mining projects have a useful life span of decades, with the possibility of expanding reserves.

Therefore, depletion is not a sudden event and is unlikely to occur in the short term. Lithium battery recycling technology will also extend their availability, although it currently lacks a significant material recovery rate, which we will explore in another article.

FINAL RESERVE EXHAUSTION SCENARIO, POINT OF NO RETURN.

Projections from industry and agencies such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) indicate that global demand for lithium could increase 40-fold by 2040 .

If we take the reserves of the main countries (Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, USA) and project a demand that is not linear but exponential, the conclusion is very different:

• Total reserves (main suppliers): 57,400,000 tons.
• Current demand (2024): ~240,000 tons per year.
• Projected demand (2040): ~9,600,000 tons per year (a 40-fold increase).

If lithium supply were to rely solely on these countries’ current reserves to meet projected demand through 2040, reserves would be depleted in just over five years from that point.

This calculation illustrates the real challenge: production must scale at an unprecedented pace to keep up with demand, even in countries with the largest reserves. This puts immense pressure on mining infrastructure and extraction capacity.

Implications and Scenarios

The lithium demand curve reinforces the «yellow light» idea you mentioned and adds a sense of urgency.

• Accelerated mining: The lithium craze is not mere speculation, but a real need. This would accelerate exploration and mining, often at high environmental and social costs.
• Technological race for recycling: The looming shortage will not only drive up prices, but will also make lithium battery recycling a top-priority industry.
• Market vulnerability: Countries and companies that do not secure long-term supply agreements will face disruptions to their production and become dependent on volatile markets.

Sources consulted:

usgs.gov: Lithium Statistics and Information